We have been watching the latest XFlare unfold. Here is SpaceWeatherLives analysis,
“ We finally have all the data we need to come to a conclusion as to what to expect of the coronal mass ejection launched by the X1.0 solar flare. The coronagraph imagery from SOHO/LASCO shows us a dense partial halo coronal mass ejection with the bulk of the ejecta heading south of our planet. We do however think that a significant portion of the cloud is going to impact our planet’s magnetic field and we should see a very clear impact signature when the cloud passes the DSCOVR spacecraft at the Sun-Earth L1 point. The big question mark however is… when is the plasma cloud going to arrive?
The experts at the European SIDC and the American NOAA SWPC are in disagreement here… by quite a margin. The NOAA SWPC expects an early impact time around 16 UTC on Saturday, 30 October which means it would take the plasma cloud about two full 2 days to bridge the gap between Sun and Earth. The SIDC reports that the plasma cloud was launched at a speed of 800km/s as measured with STEREO COR2 and they have an impact window during the early hours of Sunday, 31 October. An impact time late 30 October or early 31 October seems to be the most realistic scenario right now.
Nonetheless, stay alert tomorrow and even on Sunday as this has the potential to become the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current Solar Cycle thus far. Everyone seems to be in agreement that the potential is there for strong G3 geomagnetic storm conditions which in theory could make aurora visible from locations like northern Germany, the Netherlands, and most of England. In the USA, the aurora might become visible from locations like Denver, CO, and Richmond, VA. Melbourne and Wellington could get a piece of the cake in the southern hemisphere.”1 Share
- May 24, 2021